New economic analysis by Goldman Sachs reveals a bifurcated picture of artificial intelligence’s impact on the workforce, finding that while the technology’s role in current layoffs remains modest and unproven across the broader economy, companies focusing on AI in their workforce discussions have sharply curtailed their job openings this year.
The findings, drawn from an analysis of Q3 corporate earnings commentary and results by senior economist Ronnie Walker, were drawn from management commentary and results across nearly all the S&P 500. It showed that a relationship between overall labor market outcomes and AI exposure at the economy-wide level has yet to be established. But it also showed something else.
“While we still do not find a relationship between labor market outcomes and AI exposure at the economy-wide level,” Walker wrote, “we find that companies that have discussed AI in the context of their workforce have cut their job openings more sharply this year.” Indeed, Walker wrote that most components of Goldman’s layoff tracker “increased notably” in recent months.
While a minority of the layoffs discussed during third-quarter earnings were attributed to AI, the AI-related share increased notably through 2025, growing to just above 15% in the quarter. But more broadly, he highlighted that the companies discussing AI in the context of their workforce or layoffs “indeed appear to be pulling back disproportionately on hiring.” Walker highlighted the public release of ChatGPT in November 2022 as a recent marker of the rapid growth in AI focus, indicating that management teams are increasingly viewing AI not just as a tool for efficiency but as a core component of their future human capital strategy, leading to preemptive cuts in new roles.
