The increase in debt-funded capital expenditure (capex) by the big “hyperscaler” tech companies is adding to the level of risk in the AI economy, according to Goldman Sachs. Those companies—Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle specifically—have taken on $121 billion in debt, year-to-date, up from $28 billion on average over the previous five years.
“While the degree of public company leverage remains small, a continued shift toward debt financing would increase the macro risks associated with the AI build-out,” Goldman analyst Ryan Hammond and his team wrote in a note seen by Fortune.
The amount of extra debt from big tech companies being traded in the private credit markets is already having an effect. “Excluding [Oracle], the large public hyperscalers could theoretically increase their debt by $700 billion,” Hammond et al wrote.
Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital Management, a wealth manager that advises on about $170 billion in client assets, agrees.
“The growth of the U.S. corporate bond markets net new issuance [of debt] is about $600-$800 billion per year. And hyperscaler issuance could increase that number by 20%,” he told Fortune.
