The most important elections so far of the second Donald Trump administration are not likely to be particularly dramatic. Most of the high-profile races of 2025 have heavy favorites: Zohran Mamdani in the New York City’s mayoral race, Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the Virginia gubernatorial race, and an easy passage for “yes” on a redistricting referendum in California.
There are obvious real-world effects from these results. The nation’s largest city is going to have significantly more left-wing governance than it did before. Democratic control of Virginia and a victory for the redistricting referendum, which will favor Democrats, give the party a much better chance of winning back control of Congress in 2026. Lower-profile races in Georgia and Pennsylvania could matter a lot for the electrical bills and reproductive rights of people in those states.
A Shifting Narrative?
But Tuesday night’s results will also matter for the narrative, the story elites — including the political press, elected officials, business leaders and the rest of civil society — tell themselves about the mood of the country and its future direction. Since Trump’s 2024 victory, which saw him win gains among Black, Latino and Asian voters and snag the popular vote, that story has focused on Trump’s inevitability, his iron grip on the GOP, and the unwillingness of other institutions to stand up to his increasingly authoritarian behavior.
