You can expect a 25 bps cut from the Fed, says Wall Street, but little economic insight from Powell—after all, he doesn’t have much to go on | Fortune

With the government still shut down, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be making its decision about America’s base interest rate today without some key data. So when Chair Jerome Powell announces the outcome of the meeting in a press conference this afternoon, analysts are expecting him to deliver less insight than usual into the health of the economy.

Wall Street is largely expecting a cut to be confirmed today. Despite likely arguments from more dovish members of the FOMC that a cut of 50 basis points is appropriate, markets have priced in a 99.9% certainty that a 25 bps cut will be the outcome. Per CME’s FedWatch barometer, interest rate traders are pricing a 0% chance of a 50 bps cut, and a 0.1% chance of a hold.

While the FOMC will still have a host of data to base its decision on—from private data to regional reserve banks’ own reporting—they are without some key pieces of insight from government agencies owing to the lockdown.

Some of this reporting relates directly to the Fed’s mandates of maximum employment and stable inflation of around 2%. For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics hasn’t published its employment situation survey since the beginning of September, meaning the FOMC has more limited information about the side of its mandate that has been more in flux.