High-stakes governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey this year will set the stage for the 2026 midterm elections as Democrats vie to flip control of Congress and Republicans attempt to maintain their slim majority for the remainder of President Donald Trump's second term.
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger has consistently led her Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, by about 10 points in polls. New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill, meanwhile, is in a dead heat against Republican Jack Ciattarelli based on recent polling in that race.
New Jersey and Virginia voters have a track record of electing a governor from the opposite party of the president. Here's a look at how those states have voted in the past:
Up until 2021, New Jersey had elected a governor from the opposite party as the sitting president since 1989. Democrat Phil Murphy broke that record.
Virginia voters, meanwhile, have voted for the non-White House party in every governor’s race since 1977, except for 2013, when Democrat Terry McAuliffe secured a victory during President Barack Obama's second term in office.
