There's a reason the political world is obsessed with the Nov. 4 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia: They're the only ones we've got this year.
The off-year elections in two random states, plus the New York City mayor's race and the California redistricting referendum, provide the first significant opportunities since the 2024 presidential race for voters to weigh in on which party they credit and which one they blame for what's happened since then.
Can Republicans in New Jersey turn out the new voters who supported Donald Trump even though he's not on the ballot? Have Democrats in the two states found a template for victory by nominating moderate women with national-security backgrounds? Can presidential hopefuls build credibility for 2028 by delivering on favored causes this November?
A dose of caution is advisable. Predictions of what will happen down the road are open to misinterpretation, and whatever signals they send could be overtaken by developments.
That said, here we go.
