Tropical Storm Melissa continues to meander in the central Caribbean Sea on Oct. 23, its future path and strength still confounding meteorologists, who are now raising alarms about how strong the storm could become.
"It goes without saying, this is a very challenging track forecast," the National Hurricane Center said in an Oct. 22 forecast discussion. In addition, "the intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, in large part related to the track uncertainty."
And with the chances of a monstrous Category 5 storm still in play, the potential is there for Melissa to be "the most impactful storm of the 2025 season," said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in a Substack post on Oct. 22.
Indeed, if Melissa does end up turning west over the Caribbean south of Jamaica (like some model forecasts show), "I don't think it's hyperbolic to say we will likely get a Category 5, and quite possibly one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic," Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, said on X Oct. 22.
"The worst case is that (Melissa) sits close enough to one or several of the mountainous Caribbean islands and dumps feet of rain," Fox Weather hurricane expert Bryan Norcross told the USA TODAY Network via email. "Three or four feet are not out of the question."
