The National Hurricane Center continues to track a broad area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea that is likely to form into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 48 hours.
The weather system, currently labeled Invest 98L, would be named Melissa if it strengthens into a named storm. If Melissa forms, it would be the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. A typical year sees 14 storms, according to data from Colorado State University.
The hurricane center said in an Oct. 21 advisory the system "continues to become better defined," with winds near 45 mph, though it still lacks a "well-defined center." Forecasters said environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, with a tropical storm likely to form as the system moves slowly over the central Caribbean Sea.
"Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days," hurricane center forecasters said in the advisory, adding that interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should monitor the progress of the system, as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week.
While the system could impact the Caribbean islands later this week or by the weekend, "none of our model guidance shows future Melissa posing any threat to Florida or the mainland U.S.," said WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry in a Substack post on Oct. 20.
