It would be reassuring for markets to hear Jamie Dimon, the leader of America’s biggest bank and a veteran of Wall Street, say he didn’t see a recession coming. Unfortunately, that’s not the case.
In his decades leading JPMorgan Chase, Dimon’s economic opinion has been seen as a barometer for the health of the U.S. economy. But those who follow Dimon also know he conducts rigorous stress testing at JPM, making sure the institution can withstand a range of outcomes.
To this end, Dimon isn’t taking a recession off the table for next year—even though GDP at present is tracking upward. According to the latest figures, U.S. gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025.
But there are questions outstanding for analysts: Particularly those like Dimon who refrain from falling to the overly bullish or bearish side. Those questions include the impact of tariffs on inflation (if or when those increases truly hit), as well as geopolitics, the labor market, and whether AI will deliver the returns investors are banking on.
Dimon echoed this caution in an interview this week, saying: “I think [a recession] could happen in 2026—I’m not worried about it, is a different statement. We’ll deal with it, we’ll serve our clients, we’ll navigate through it. A lot of us have been through them before.”
