The Supreme Court will likely agree with lower courts that ruled President Donald Trump can’t use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose broad tariffs, according experts surveyed by JPMorgan.
The bank hosted a conference in London last month, and in a note on Monday it summarized highlights from a session on Trump’s trade policies.
Trade and legal experts said the odds that the high court will rule against the Trump administration are 70%-80% and expect a decision by the end of the year, according to the note, which added that the justices may not follow traditional ideological divides.
“While the sitting three liberal justices are expected to oppose IEEPA tariffs, Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett—both with pro-business leanings—may also side against. Kavanaugh is considered the swing vote and has voted with the majority 90% of the time,” it said. “Legal experts point out that none of Trump’s three appointed justices is distinctively ‘Trumpy,’ and they have been less predictable than Republicans had hoped.”
Trump cited IEEPA when he imposed tariffs related to the fentanyl trade as well as his so-called reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trade partners around the world. But since then, a federal district court, the Court of International Trade, and a federal appeals court have said the tariffs are unconstitutional.
