Good morning. It has been nearly three years since OpenAI’s ChatGPT first made its debut, and its arrival has profoundly reshaped the future of work.
Amid the whirlwind that began in November 2022, my colleague Sharon Goldman assesses our current position in her new Fortune feature article, “We’re not in an ‘AI winter’—but here’s how to survive a cold snap.”
Goldman notes that Gartner forecasts global AI spending will reach nearly $1.5 trillion in 2025 and surpass $2 trillion in 2026, driven by integration into smartphones, PCs, and enterprise infrastructure. Big AI companies, such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft, continue to benefit from the AI boom.
However, at the ground level, among customers and in financial markets, there may be an adjustment of expectations. Rowan Curran, principal analyst at Forrester Research, told Goldman that a necessary reset is underway: “Our thermometer was broken before. Now we’re finally getting the correct temperature.” He explained that enterprises are not pulling back from AI, but are recalibrating after a period of overhyped expectations.
Bill Briggs, chief technology officer at Deloitte, acknowledged a “vibe shift” around AI but said it’s not comparable to the late-1990s tech bust: “It’s certainly at an inflection point, but I don’t see this being a repeat of the dotcom bust,” Briggs told Goldman. He emphasized that AI is still driving transformation and that new business models are just beginning.
