The “low-hire, low-fire” US labor market is leaving millions on the outside looking in.
It’s not just recent college graduates who are struggling to find entry-level positions. Out-of-work mid-career employees are taking part-time jobs, and hiring has stalled in industries from professional services to manufacturing. More than a quarter of the jobless have been out of work more than a half-year — the highest share since the mid-2010s excluding the pandemic-era years.
The significant cooldown in job creation was worrisome enough to prompt Federal Reserve officials to cut interest rates in September.
“You’ve got a low-firing, low-hiring environment,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press briefing following the decision to lower rates. If you start to see layoffs, “that could very quickly flow into higher unemployment.”
Economists forecast that September’s employment report, expected to publish on Friday, will show another month of anemic payrolls growth. They see the jobless rate remaining at 4.3%, a level that is still relatively low but masks the reality of a growing number of people who feel stuck in jobs they don’t want or underemployed.
