Scientists have spotted something dramatically unusual in the ocean, and it could be a warning sign of things to come.

Warm air dances with cold air; cold water chases warm water. It's all a part of a predictable, stable dance of currents and climate patterns that naturally happen all across the Earth. Until it doesn't.

For the first time since records began 40 years ago, the cold, nutrient-rich waters of the Gulf of Panama failed to emerge this year. Scientists aren't sure if it's a fluke or a new normal.

Specifically, the Gulf of Panama’s seasonal upwelling system has consistently delivered cool, nutrient-rich waters via northerly trade winds every January–April for at least 40 years. But not this year.

"Time will tell if this is a real life example of a climate tipping point – if the failure of upwelling continues in future years," said Tim Lenton, of the University of Exeter in the U.K., a tipping point expert who was not involved in the new research.