China said to be ‘highly unlikely’ to invade the island, according to report
As the US Congress works to finish its annual defence authorisation bill, with new measures aimed at countering China’s influence, a report released Wednesday argues that Washington would be better served by toning down rhetoric about Taiwan and reducing defence investments premised on a looming Chinese invasion there.
Beijing is “highly unlikely” to invade Taiwan, with its chances of success increasingly improbable, authors of the Stimson Centre report, “Rethinking the Threat: Why China is Unlikely to Invade Taiwan”, said.
The authors, Dan Grazier, MacKenna Rawlins, and James Siebens – all researchers at the Washington-based think tank – contend that strategic, political, economic and practical military reasons all argue against it, laying out one of the more comprehensive cases to challenge what they call Washington’s “threat inflation”.
Beijing sees Taiwan, a self-governed island, as a renegade province to be eventually reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take it by force and is committed to arming Taiwan.
