"Stable but elevated" isn't something you want to hear in a medical checkup, or in a recession likelihood outlook.
Goldman Sachs now sees much higher odds of economy shrinking, hiking probability of a U.S. recession to 35%
March 31, 2025
More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a ‘telling’ sign that’s accompanied past recessions, top economist says
August 10, 2025
There’s a ‘scary’ recession warning hidden in the too-good-to-be-true economic data, Wells Fargo says
Moody’s own leading economic indicator that uses machine learning has estimated the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are…
"If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid," Zandi said.
Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, tells Fortune parts of America are already in recession, with 22 state economies contracting…
"Today a confluence of factors argue that the key tail risk that may not be priced in is not just a cyclical recovery, but…
"Central to our view," Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson argues, "is the notion that the economy has been much weaker" than the…
U.S. economist Pierfrancesco Mei worries that a 10% stock market pullback in the first half could cut GDP growth by half a…
