The oil market is holding together surprisingly well given consistent assaults from political and economic meddling, be that from sanctions, tariffs or wars.
Huge volumes of oil flows are being rerouted, pushing an already opaque trade deeper into the shadows and creating a parallel market outside Western influence.
The oil market has become unpredictable. Prices surge on the threat of supply disruptions from Mideast conflicts or sanctions. Prices sag, much slower but more consistently, from forecasts of rising oversupply and uncertain oil demand, accentuated by US trade tariffs upending the global economic order. Sanctions have put a combined 9 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products from Russia, Iran and Venezuela in a shady world of middlemen and tankers — creating a parallel trading universe to established Western rules. With so much global upheaval, and at a time when the energy transition is creating profound uncertainties, oil forecasts are increasingly unreliable. But Brent is below $70 and not at $110 as might be expected during such political and economic mayhem. Why? There is plenty of oil around.
