The oil market is shrugging off President Donald Trump’s threats to impose heavy tariffs on countries that buy Russian energy exports.
Trump has given Russia until Friday to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. If Moscow does not comply, the U.S. will impose 100% “secondary tariffs” on countries that buy Russian exports, the president has said. This would in theory force countries to choose between buying Russian oil or trading with the U.S.
India, China and Turkey are the most exposed as the three biggest importers of Russian oil. Trump on Wednesday targeted India with a 25% tariff for buying Russian crude, a much lower rate than the 100% penalty he originally threatened. Oil prices closed 1% lower as traders seem to believe the president is bluffing and the tariff won’t really go into effect.
“Given the price response to the news, it would appear that current threats are considered a negotiation tactic by Trump and little more,” Matt Smith, an oil analyst at Kpler, told CNBC.
India is Russia’s biggest oil customer, importing about 1.7 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data. If Trump follows through on the tariff, oil prices would jump because barrels that Russia exports to India cannot be easily rerouted to other destinations, Smith said. Moscow would have to shut in some production, which would take supply out of the global market, he said.
