As the end of the decade draws nearer, international oil company (IOC) investors — many of whom are hankering for continued oil and gas production growth — are looking for insight on what to expect in the 2030s. Energy security is still front-of-mind in Europe, and peak oil demand projections are being pushed back. This has coincided with a subtle change in messaging from European IOCs on production post 2030 — and with renewed commitment to exploration — as companies try to highlight the longevity of their upstream businesses without appearing like they are backtracking on climate pledges. The year 2030 is a major waypoint for corporate transition strategies as IOCs strive, at least on paper, to reach net zero by midcentury. But shareholders today seem much more focused on continuing to enjoy the strong returns oil and gas projects have delivered in recent years. They are pleased to see companies lengthening their upstream runways, whether through M&A, as TotalEnergies did when it bought Malaysia-focused SapuraOMV in 2024, or by drilling on promising exploration acreage in emerging hotspots like North Africa, Namibia and Southeast Asia.