It doesn’t take much to tip a stalling economy into recession, and a new war in the Middle East plus US tariffs could do just that
The stall speed holds the key to cyclical risk assessment. It can be thought of as a zone of vulnerability, measured by significant downside deviations from trend growth. Looking back over the past 45 years, I would place the global economy’s stall speed in the 2.5-3 per cent range: when in this zone, the world lacks the resilience needed to withstand a shock. That is what happened in each of the past four global recessions.
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