Senior Israeli officials said this week that their military campaign against Iran could trigger the fall of the regime, an event that would have enormous implications for the global oil market.
The oil market has reacted with remarkable restraint as Israel has bombed the third-largest crude producer in OPEC for eight straight days, with no clear sign the conflict will end anytime soon.
Oil prices are up about 10% since Israel launched its attack on Iran a week ago, but with oil supplies so far undisturbed, both U.S. crude oil and the global benchmark Brent remain below $80 per barrel.
Still, the risk of a supply disruption that triggers a big spike in prices is growing the longer the conflict rages on, according to energy analysts.
President Donald Trump has threatened the life of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and is considering helping Israel destroy the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. For its part, Iran’s leadership is more likely to target regional oil facilities if it feels its very existence is at stake, the analysts said.
