Aukus was a bad deal for Australia when it was signed and even more so now. A US review that could bring the deal to an end is happy news
After all, there has never been any certainty that the promised subs would arrive on time. The US is supposed to supply three, or possibly five, Virginia-class submarines from 2032, with another five newly designed SSN-Aukus-class subs (built mainly in the UK) coming into service from the early 2040s. But the US and the UK’s industrial capacities are already strained, owing to their own national submarine-building targets, and both have explicit opt-out rights.
There are very real concerns in Washington that even with more Australian dollars devoted to expanding shipyard capacity, the US will not be able to increase production to the extent required to make available three – let alone five – Virginia-class subs by the early 2030s. Moreover, Elbridge Colby, the US undersecretary of defence for policy who is leading the review, has long been a sceptic of the project, and he will not hesitate to put America’s own new-boat target first.
Aukus will ‘get done’, Biden tells Australia’s Albanese during visit to Washington
