Iran's leadership changes are not just a fight between 'extremists' and 'pragmatists' – they're a struggle over the powers to guide Iran's future. Meanwhile, Trump is at a loss on Hormuz, as Tehran has yet to be deterred by his economic sanctions

Dwindling US arms stockpiles, inflation woes and looming midterms mean time is on Tehran’s side. Trouble, however, is brewing at home.

Formal control over even part of the Strait of Hormuz would be a clear win for Iran and a loss for the United States.