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Fed study: AI's slow productivity story fits a century-old historical pattern | Fortune

Researchers at the St. Louis Fed looked through 490,000 earnings calls and saw AI productivity surged—but only in talk.

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Fed study: AI's slow productivity story fits a century-old historical pattern | Fortune

Federal Reserve study of 490K earnings calls finds AI hasn't yet boosted measured productivity; 95% of AI commentary predicts future gains only. Historical precedent (computers: 20-30 year lag) suggests real impact is distant, yet firms are investing heavily in R&D and capex.

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AI is only "part" of high U.S. productivity growth, says Stripe economist

U.S. productivity surge is driven by better utilization of existing capital—factories, servers, GPUs—not AI. This signals AI's real payoff remains ahead: current gains come from optimizing deployed resources, so ROI is limited without resolving workflow bottlenecks.

Fed study: AI's slow productivity story fits a century-old historical pattern | Fortune

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Fed study: AI's slow productivity story fits a century-old historical pattern | Fortune

AI is only "part" of high U.S. productivity growth, says Stripe economist

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AI is only "part" of high U.S. productivity growth, says Stripe economist

Fed study: AI's slow productivity story fits a century-old historical pattern | Fortune

Fed study: AI’s slow productivity story fits a century-old historical pattern | Fortune