Despite the Iran conflict disrupting more than 2 million metric tons of aluminium supply, prices have retreated to pre-war levels as markets bet that higher exports from China and Indonesia will offset Gulf production losses. However, rising physical premiums in Europe and Japan suggest supply concerns remain unresolved.

Production of Gulf smelters has slumped 20% this year after Iran missile strikes

Despite the Iran conflict disrupting more than 2 million metric tons of aluminium supply, prices have retreated to pre-war levels as markets bet that higher exports from China and…