India's stock market faces a new challenge as a severe "Super El Niño" threatens the monsoon, impacting 56% of GDP tied to consumption. This follows a decade-low monsoon start, with rainfall deficits exceeding previous El Niño years. Analysts warn of domestic demand destruction, range-bound markets, and downgrades in consumer sectors, despite easing oil prices. The situation could strain rural incomes and government finances.

MUMBAI: Oil prices have tumbled enough for some analysts to lower India’s headline inflation forecast for the fiscal year, but uncertainty over the trajectory of monsoons is…

A 10% rain deficit could add as much as one-percentage-point to headline consumer inflation driven by food prices, according to research by Yuvika Singhal, an economist at…