Although half of the forecasting participants now expects to hike before the end of the year, it was only three months ago – and after the outbreak of the war – that the median participant still expected one cut in 2026

Policymakers scrapped an easing bias. Nine out of 18 see a rate hike this year.

The median projection called for the federal funds rate to end 2026 at 3.8%, a quarter percentage point above the current target range.