Will your team get one of the third-place berths in the World Cup? This chart has the answer

All 48 teams of the 2026 World Cup have now played one game. Some teams — Turkey, Ecuador, Iran — have not had the start they’d hoped for, while others — Cape Verde, Sweden, Australia — have surprised with a strong performance. These teams may now be asking the same question, even if they’re approaching it from opposite directions: How can we get one of those third-place berths? Here’s the short answer, based on thousands of simulations from our World Cup Tracker: If you finish third with four points, you are essentially guaranteed to advance to the knockout rounds. If you...

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