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Inflation could breach RBI's 6% upper band in 2nd half of FY 2026-27 as El Nino meets geopolitical stress: Report

Inflation in India may exceed RBI's 6% target in 2H27 due to El Nino and geopolitical supply-chain disruptions, warns brokerage.

Raccontata daeconomictimes.indiatimes.comthehindubusinessline.com

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thehindubusinessline.com2 g fa

Inflation seen at 5% in FY27, 50-75 bps rate hikes likely: ICICI Bank Global Markets

ICICI Bank Global Markets projects FY27 inflation at 5%, core at 4.6%, with RBI policy rate hikes likely 50-75 bps; persistent food and energy pressures from geopolitical conflict and below-normal monsoon. For CTOs managing India-based engineering teams, scenario signals rising outsourcing costs and cloud pricing; margin compression on nearshore services and retention pressure on local talent pools.

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economictimes.indiatimes.com2 g fa

Inflation seen at 5% in FY27, 50-75 bps rate hikes likely as food and fuel risks build: Report

ICICI Bank forecasts 5% FY27 inflation with 50-75 bps rate hikes due to West Asia conflict and weak monsoon pressuring food and energy. Rising rates and input costs compress IT enterprise budgets, increase cloud/SaaS funding costs, and signal higher capital requirements.

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Timeline cronologica

1. sabato 13 giugno 2026·economictimes.indiatimes.com
   

   Inflation in June quarter likely to undershoot RBI forecast, rate hike probability drops ahead of monsoon risks

   India's inflation is giving the Reserve Bank of India room to hold interest rates through the first quarter of fiscal year 2027. However, risks from food and fuel prices could…

2. sabato 13 giugno 2026·thehindubusinessline.com
   

   CPI in June quarter likely to undershoot RBI forecast, rate hike probability drops ahead of monsoon risks

   CPI is expected to undershoot RBI's forecast, reducing rate hike likelihood amid food and fuel inflation risks.

3. sabato 13 giugno 2026·economictimes.indiatimes.com
   

   Inflation seen at 5% in FY27, 50-75 bps rate hikes likely as food and fuel risks build: Report

   Inflation is set to climb to 5.0 percent in FY27. Upside risks persist due to the West Asia conflict and a potential below-normal monsoon. ICICI Bank Global Markets anticipates…

4. sabato 13 giugno 2026·thehindubusinessline.com
   

   Inflation seen at 5% in FY27, 50-75 bps rate hikes likely: ICICI Bank Global Markets

   Food inflation accelerated to 4.8% YoY from 4.2% in April, core to 3.9% from 3.7%, and energy to 1.9% from 0.4%

5. domenica 14 giugno 2026·thehindubusinessline.com
   

   Inflation could breach RBI's 6% upper band in 2nd half of FY 2026-27 as El Nino meets geopolitical stress: Report

   Inflation in India may exceed RBI's 6% target in 2H27 due to El Nino and geopolitical supply-chain disruptions, warns brokerage.