Stay up to date with notifications from The IndependentNotifications can be managed in browser preferences.AllNewsSportCultureLifestyleAndy Burnham smiles during a campaign visit to Ashton-in-Makerfield before the forthcoming by-election, in Manchester (Jon Super)New constituency polling for the Makerfield by-election indicates Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham holds a narrow lead over Reform UK's candidate. The poll places Burnham at 46 per cent, five points ahead of Reform UK's Robert Kenyon on 41 per cent, with Restore Britain's Rebecca Shepherd at 7 per cent. Restore Britain's presence is splitting the right-wing vote, potentially preventing Reform UK from securing victory, despite Nigel Farage's claims of a two-horse race. Experts, including Professor Sir John Curtice, suggest Restore Britain acts as a 'spoiler' for Reform UK, with its vote share potentially exceeding Labour's lead over Reform. Andy Burnham's team is reportedly preparing for a Downing Street operation, including planning cabinet roles and an overhaul of communications, signalling his potential leadership ambitions. In fullRestore Britain set to sweep Burnham to victory in Makerfield, new poll suggestsThank you for registeringPlease refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in

The Greater Manchester mayor is Labour's candidate in the seat as he seeks a return to Westminster before launching a bid to replace Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.

If Reform and Restore's vote shares were added together, the right would overtake Labour and quash Mr Burnham's dreams of returning to Parliament.

Exclusive: Latest constituency polling shows Greater Manchester mayor is slightly ahead of Reform UK – but it’s still all to play for

Stay up to date with notifications from The IndependentNotifications can be managed in browser preferences.AllNewsSportCultureLifestyleAndy Burnham smiles during a campaign visit…

A new poll highlights the current hairbreadth margin between Manchester Mayor and PM hopeful Burnham and Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon.

A poll this weekend by More in Common and the UCL Policy Lab puts Andy Burnham on 45 per cent, with Reform's Robert Kenyon on 40 per cent and Restore on 8 per cent.