Inflation in June quarter likely to undershoot RBI forecast, rate hike probability drops ahead of monsoon risks

Inflation seen at 5% in FY27, 50-75 bps rate hikes likely: ICICI Bank Global Markets

ICICI Bank Global Markets projects FY27 inflation at 5%, core at 4.6%, with RBI policy rate hikes likely 50-75 bps; persistent food and energy pressures from geopolitical conflict and below-normal monsoon. For CTOs managing India-based engineering teams, scenario signals rising outsourcing costs and cloud pricing; margin compression on nearshore services and retention pressure on local talent pools.