"Each additional month of disruption would lift average prices by roughly $5 in 3Q26 and $15 in 4Q26, driven primarily by accelerating inventory depletion."

Oil prices jumped over 3% on Monday as escalating strikes between Iran and Israel heightened fears of prolonged regional instability, threatening a fragile ceasefire.

"Each additional month of disruption would lift average prices by roughly $5 in 3Q26 and $15 in 4Q26, driven primarily by accelerating inventory depletion."

Oil prices are likely to rise further as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and once it opens, the market will take months to normalize.

As the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for the fourth month, “one development stands out: prices have become remarkably calm,” JPMorgan analysts said.