US and Iran are nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift oil sanctions. Agreement by May 26 at 70% YES.

Trump announced US-Iran nuclear deal talks are in final stages, making a $150 oil spike less likely. WTI at 1.4% YES for $150 in May 2026.

US and Iran reached a draft agreement to lift sanctions gradually. US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 34.5% YES.

Trump rejects Iranian tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. Blockade lifted by May 31, 2026 at 25.5% YES.

Iran is finalizing a nuclear deal framework with the US. Nuclear agreement by June 30 at 26% YES.

A US-Iran draft peace deal is expected within 24 hours. Nuclear deal by June 30 priced at 34.5% YES.