Trump is considering military options against Iran, but the market signals a US invasion at 22.5% YES, while WTI crude hitting $110 in May 2026 is at 32% YES.

July Brent oil futures are at $110.76, down by 0.20%, and July crude oil futures on WTI are at $103.82, down by 0.18%

Trump warns of potential military action against Iran. Diplomatic talks with Iran by May 22 at 0.9% YES.

US issues ultimatum to Iran, raising military escalation risk. Military action by Iran against neighbors at 34% YES.

Trump announced US-Iran nuclear deal talks are in final stages, making a $150 oil spike less likely. WTI at 1.4% YES for $150 in May 2026.

Iran war strains European economy, boosting oil prices. WTI crude above $110 by May 2026 at 41.5% YES.

Trump rejects Iranian tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. Blockade lifted by May 31, 2026 at 25.5% YES.

Trump is considering military options against Iran, but the market signals a US invasion at 22.5% YES, while WTI crude hitting $110 in May 2026 is at 32% YES.

Trump claims the US is close to an agreement with Iran, reducing conflict risk. US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 22.5% YES.

Trump warns of potential military action as Iran nuclear deal talks stall. US-Iran nuclear deal by June at 31.5% YES.

Trump's military strikes on Iran and Venezuela decrease confidence in a US-Iran peace deal. Nuclear deal by May 31 at 17.3% YES.

Iran threatens commercial vessels, raising tensions. WTI crude oil prices above $130 in May 2026 at 1.9% YES.