Insider Betting on Polymarket - Schneier on Security

Insider trading is rife on Polymarket: Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets—­defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less—­on the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and defense actions. That compares with a win rate of 25 percent across all politics-focused markets and just 14 percent for all markets on the platform as a whole. It is absolutely insane that this is legal. We already know how insider betting warps sports. Insider betting warping politics—and military actions—is orders of magnitude worse...

Raccontata daschneier.com