Betting on 5-minute swings on Bitcoin price are the hot new thing on prediction markets | Fortune

As Kalshi and Polymarket balloon in popularity, so too do quick-hit bets on crypto. There is a new trend in prediction markets: betting on whether Bitcoin will go up or down in the next five of fifteen minutes. On Polymarket, a five-minute wager on the price of the largest cryptocurrency has garnered more than $60 million in trading volume in a single day, according to Dune Analytics. The minute-by-minute wagers on Bitcoin highlight the relative simplicity of bets on prediction markets. As opposed to traditional sports betting, which have an array of complex numbers relating to the spread, moneyline, and total points scored, the prediction market interface has a lower barrier to entry. Users can see what percentage of their peers are voting “yes” about a certain wager and how many are voting “no”. Some 73% of users are betting that Bitcoin will go up in the next five minutes on Polymarket as of Monday at 1 PM ET. After that five minute interval is over at 1:05 PM ET, the platform has a new wager for the next five minutes of Bitcoin’s performance. Kalshi offers bets on whether Bitcoin will go up or down every fifteen minutes. About 37% of users are saying the price will go up between 1:00 PM ET and 1:15 PM ET, but that percentage is changing virtually every second as more people pour in money. These quick-hit bets reinforce how, on prediction market platforms, users can bet on practically anything. People can put money on whether the U.S. will confirm that aliens exist before 2027, which already has seen about $12 million in transaction volume, or whether Jesus Christ will return this year, which is at $45 million in transaction volume. Sports are the most popular category to wager on in prediction markets, as they comprise roughly 90% of the bets on Kalshi. Betting on culture has become increasingly popular. Over $120 million was placed on bets about last night’s Oscars on Polymarket and Kalshi, according to Forbes. Prediction markets received mainstream attention during the 2024 presidential election, when they correctly predicted Donald Trump’s victory, contrary to many national polls. The two leading platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are looking to raise money at a $20 billion valuation, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Raccontata dafortune.com