The scenarios Egypt is preparing for in Sudan

Since the eruption of war in Sudan, Egypt has adopted a posture that many observers initially described as cautious, even restrained. Yet beneath that surface restraint lies a deeply calculated strategy shaped by history, geography and hard national interests. Egypt’s approach to Sudan is neither neutral nor improvisational. It is anchored in clearly defined red lines, long-term objectives and a set of scenarios that Cairo has quietly prepared for — some tolerable, others deeply alarming. The central question is no longer whether Egypt is involved in Sudan’s conflict. It is.

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