A 25 basis point cut is almost certain. A 50 point slash is unlikely, unless the "outies" of some Fed officials overpower their independent "innies."

With markets convinced of a Fed rate cut, Powell must navigate divisions inside the FOMC over inflation, tariffs, and jobs data.

While the rate decision is fairly pretty much in the bag, what happens from there is anybody's guess.

A 25 basis point cut is almost certain. A 50 point slash is unlikely, unless the "outies" of some Fed officials overpower their independent "innies."