President Biden and the Democrats are hoping to ride a recent hot streak into November.

The party is banking that things like passage of the climate-focused Inflation Reduction Act, falling prices at the pump, and abortion being at the top of voters' minds may give them a chance to hold onto control on Capitol Hill.

But there may be serious speed bumps ahead. If the worse-than-expected inflation data released on Tuesday weren't bad enough for the party, the hot prices are hitting many pivotal states the hardest. The West and South have seen the most persistent inflation, and they are also home to some of the races likely to decide if Republicans take control of the Senate in the fall.

During a recent Yahoo Finance Live interview, Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner predicted that “the most likely scenario is a Republican House and a Democratic Senate,” though he quickly added, “with still several weeks to go, things can change.”

Inflation and embattled Democratic incumbents