After the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of migrants flowing into Australia increased to "unbelievable levels", says immigration expert Abul Rizvi.Numbers had fallen sharply during the pandemic years as lockdown measures halted international travel. By March 2021, quarterly migrant arrivals had dropped to a fifth of pre-pandemic levels in Australia.As things returned to normal, that trend reversed.Rizvi, a former deputy secretary at the Department of Immigration, says no one was expecting net overseas migration (NOM) — which also factors in migrant departures — to reach a record annual high of almost 550,000 people as it did in 2023.Almost three years later, Australia is still adjusting to that influx, and politicians across the ideological divide are now fixated on setting a new figure.News that makes senseYour trusted source for staying up-to-date with the world around you. Get free daily news updates and analysis, straight to your inbox.The recent debate over Australia's NOM has been dominated by One Nation, which is calling for substantial cuts to immigration.But research shows that opposition to immigration is often concentrated in areas with the fewest migrants.Experts say these areas could also be among the worst hit by wide-ranging cuts, such as those proposed by One Nation.Australia's temporary migration challengeTemporary migrants have historically been a driver of population growth in Australia. Typically, more migrants arrive each year than those who leave, increasing the overall population over time.One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has accused Labor of using migration to prop up headline economic numbers, saying in a media release: "Australians pay the price through lower wages, higher rents, unaffordable homes and stretched services."To address these issues, Hanson says the number of migrants should be reduced, insisting that "international student numbers must be slashed". She has also called for the skilled migration program to be more targeted, and immigration from countries on the 'Do Not Travel' list to be halted.The latest Department of Home Affairs figures show 2.9 million temporary visa holders were living in Australia on 31 July 2026.New Zealand citizens can access a special temporary visa (subclass 444) that allows them to remain in Australia indefinitely. This has been available for decades but a direct pathway for citizenship was also created in 2023. Source: SBS NewsThe largest single group was New Zealanders holding 'special category visas', which accounted for 20 per cent (736,509) of temporary visa holders.Temporary visa holders, who also include tourists or those undertaking short-term work or study, are not considered migrants by the ABS unless they are in the country for longer than a year. Global migration expert and associate professor at the University of Sydney, Anna Boucher, says some temporary visa holders are still in Australia due to decisions made by former governments, including extensions granted after the pandemic by the Coalition to aid economic recovery and bridge skill shortages."These migration legacies can last a long time," Boucher says.Who is considered a migrant?To count migrant arrivals, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) looks at a person's "usual residence", using criteria such as whether they have lived in the country for 12 months or more over the 16-month period after arriving. The latest ABS overseas migration data shows 568,400 migrants arrived in Australia in financial year 2024/25, and 262,800 left. These figures are used to calculate NOM, which was 305,600. The ABS also releases NOM figures for calendar years. In 2024, NOM was 340,800, falling to 301,100 in 2025.This is substantially lower than the peak in 2023, when 547,300 people entered the country, but still slightly higher than yearly figures before the pandemic.Net overseas migration (NOM) looks at how many longer-term migrants are arriving in Australia each year. Source: SBS NewsData shows migrants on temporary visas made up 70 per cent of NOM in 2024/25.Net overseas migration includes Australian citizens returning after living overseas for an extended period (although more Australians left in 2024/25 than returned), as well as New Zealanders, and those on temporary and permanent visas. Source: SBS NewsWho are Australia's temporary migrants?Bringing down the number of temporary migrants would involve reducing the number of temporary visas issued each year.Hanson has said she would target international students and temporary graduate visa holders in an effort to cut NOM to 130,000. In 2024/25, students made up 43 per cent of temporary migrant arrivals.Temporary migrants make up a large percentage of net overseas migration numbers. They include students, skilled workers and backpackers as well as 'visitors' who originally entered Australia on a tourist or other short-term visa, but extended their stay, often for work or study purposes. Source: SBS NewsBut Rizvi says a massive cut to student visas would have adverse effects on universities and could jeopardise the jobs of 50,000 Australians working in the international education sector.He points out almost half of Sydney University's revenue comes from tuition fees paid by international students.The consequences would be severe and I don't think [Hanson] has thought about those consequences.Rizvi says it's easier to make small cuts to many visa categories than to make big cuts to one or two, as the "negative consequences become quite extreme".But One Nation's ambitious target to bring NOM down to 130,000 would require a dramatic cut of 175,700 people per year, based on 2024/25 figures.This could not be achieved even if all 156,700 temporary migrants on student visas each year were cut.Labor is aiming for a more modest reduction, bringing NOM down to 225,000 within two years, according to its budget projections for 2027/28.The Coalition says it expects NOM to be "substantially below 200,000" under its policy to cap numbers based on housing supply.Will cuts make life better?One reason often cited for cutting immigration is to improve housing affordability.Boucher says reducing immigration could potentially improve rental affordability, but the impact would mostly be felt in parts of the major capital cities, particularly if cuts target international students.Almost all students on a temporary visa live in a capital city (around 90 per cent), according to the latest Census data from 2021.Even in the major cities, the impact on housing demand would likely be marginal, Rizvi says.[For] people in Sydney, it would make a minimal difference in terms of their financial situation.Boucher points out that property prices are driven by a range of factors, including the tax system and interest rate rises. Additionally, because migrant labour contributes to the construction of housing, cutting NOM could have other unintended consequences for the housing market, making the overall impact "hard to predict".Other potential benefits, such as reduced traffic congestion, are also unlikely to be very noticeable, says Rizvi.Four out of five temporary residents lived in a capital city, and around half lived in Sydney and Melbourne, according to the 2021 Census. Source: SBS NewsOn the flip side, the negative impacts of reducing NOM could include driving up prices for delivery services and food, and disruption to healthcare services.Grattan Institute analysis of 2016 Census data found the hospitality industry had the largest share of migrant workers, with 40 per cent born overseas. Migrants made up almost half of all chefs and cooks in Australia.It also found the healthcare and social assistance sector relies heavily on migrants, with around 37 per cent of these workers born overseas. Permanent migrants made up around one quarter of all registered nurses in the sector. They also work as aged and disabled carers, child carers and nursing support staff.What about regional and rural areas?Grattan's analysis found that mining areas, such as the Pilbara in remote Western Australia, are more likely to rely on migrant workers, and some agricultural areas have higher shares of working holiday makers. The sunny climate of the Gold Coast is attractive to many New Zealanders.According to the 2021 Census, around 20 per cent of working holiday makers in Australia live in regional or rural Queensland.Hanson, who hails from Queensland and is a senator for the state, has acknowledged the importance of seasonal workers to rural and regional communities. More specifically, she's said she wants to maintain the number of workers brought in from Pacific countries and Timor-Leste through the PALM scheme (around 30,000 workers in March 2024), even though this would likely raise NOM above One Nation's target.But she insists this won't impact the cost of housing in rural and regional areas because these workers are often given accommodation by their employers."Rural and regional Australia would die if they didn't have the workers coming in, especially the abattoirs and farmers, so that's a different program," Hanson told reporters at News Corp's Bush Summit last month.One Nation leader Pauline Hanson (centre) and Nationals Leader Matt Canavan (right) at the Bush Summit in Dubbo on 27 August. Source: AAP / Pip FarquharsonOne Nation and the Nationals have both criticised the Albanese government's decision to slow down the processing of working holiday visas, saying backpackers were not taking houses from people in Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane.But a 2021 report by Grattan, titled "Rethinking permanent skilled migration after the pandemic", noted anti-migrant views appear to be more prevalent in regional Australia, even though there are far fewer migrants there, especially from parts of Asia, the Middle East and Africa."This suggests a sense of threat can be as important as the level of threat," the report said.What is the problem that needs fixing?While simply cutting migration may not solve Australia's cost of living issues, past analysis has suggested more nuanced changes to the system could help ensure it benefits the country.The Parkinson review of the migration system in 2023 criticised Australia's reliance on temporary migrants."It is not in Australia's national interest to maintain a large proportion of temporary entrants with no pathway to citizenship as it undermines our democratic resilience and social cohesion," the report said.Experts at the Grattan Institute say it's important to get Australia's temporary intake right because most permanent visas are granted to temporary residents already in Australia.Its report suggested allowing all migrants earning wages above a certain level to be eligible for a temporary visa, rather than restricting this to certain occupations. This would address most skills shortages, simplify sponsorship pathways for employers and limit exploitation of lower-paid workers.It would also boost the pool of high-quality applicants for permanent residency.Visas that offer a pathway to permanent residency should be restricted to younger workers under the age of 30, the report suggests.It also cautioned the government against increasing the number of migrants filling low-skilled jobs in Australia, as they could "undercut the wages of low-paid Australians and further increase exploitation".In their essay On Our Terms, former immigration policy adviser Henry Sherrell and tax researcher Lachlan Vass suggest the goal of immigration policy should be to make the lives of Australians better.The visa system should pick people deliberately, across all parts of the system, to benefit Australians.They say Australia needs an explicit target for migration as this would provide a clear long-term signal to state governments, employers and citizens.The authors recommended setting net migration at 1 per cent of population growth."Beyond which the costs grow quickly and political support wilts [according to historical observations]," the authors note.Australian migration is currently above 1 per cent, but the government is forecasting a rate of about 0.9 per cent in 2026/27, falling to 0.8 in 2027/28, which the authors believe is "about right".The difficulty is getting to this figure.Careful changes required to avoid unintended consequencesWhile Labor, the Coalition and One Nation have all promised to bring down NOM, no one has yet set out how this will be done, a sign of how challenging it is to balance competing interests."Any time you make a cut, you're going to have to upset [a particular] group," Boucher says.Businesses want to retain skilled migrants as well as working holidaymakers who are often employed on farms; migrants want visas for family members; and those living in tourist areas also want to retain backpackers. Migrants also make a significant contribution in funding Australia's higher education sector.Reducing immigration will impact Australia's economy because it reduces tax and visa revenue and slows population growth, which can lead to lower household consumption and reduced business profits.A Treasury paper published in 2021 estimates that each skilled migrant provides a $198,000 benefit to the Australian economy because they generally arrive in the country after finishing their education. The average Australian costs the budget $85,000 across their lifetime because they receive more money back in services than they pay in taxes.Skilled migrants often contribute more in taxes than they receive in services, and certain sectors such as healthcare rely heavily on overseas workers. Source: Getty / Nansan HounBoucher points to the UK, which is facing skills shortages in sectors like construction, healthcare, hospitality and skilled trades, after its work visas were tightened.She says it's important Australia understands how to fill gaps if it cuts the supply of certain workers, and to be realistic about how quickly domestic workers can be trained to take their place.A crackdown on bridging visas, which allow migrants to stay in Australia while their immigration status is being resolved, may also involve limiting or rescinding people's current legal appeal rights."[Cutting immigration could also] have impacts on things like human rights, like the right to reunify with family."Where can we cut?Although they don't agree with slashing international student numbers as Hanson has suggested, both Rizvi and Boucher believe student visas could be tightened — which Labor already appears to be doing.One area of reform could be the 485 visa, which allows international students to live, study and work in Australia after completing their studies.Sherrell and Vass have also suggested limiting temporary visas to a maximum of eight years, which would provide a firm deadline for people to transition to a permanent visa, or leave Australia.Incentives could also be introduced to encourage people to leave Australia voluntarily when their visas expire. This could include allowing overstayers — those currently subject to re-entry bans — to make further visa applications from outside the country.Superannuation taxes could also be waived, and a cash incentive of $20,000 to $30,000 paid when someone returns to their country of origin."This funding is comparatively cheap compared to endless weeks spent in immigration detention. And it is more compassionate too," Sherrell and Vass note.Senator Jonathon Duniam, the Coalition's spokesperson for home affairs, told ABC's Insiders on 6 September that the government should find a way to deport the 77,000 illegal overstayers in Australia, and suggested temporary visa holders should be required to apply for further visas offshore.Duniam pointed to the UK's introduction of a 'safe countries of origin' list that designates countries as generally having no serious risk of persecution and allowing for fast-track deportations. One Nation has gone further, suggesting Australia not accept refugees from countries that the government deems unsafe for Australians to visit, citing Nepal as an example following the country’s recent devastating floods.But cracking down on Australia's relatively low refugee intake is unlikely to shift migration numbers significantly.One Nation hasn't clarified whether it would reduce current humanitarian numbers from 20,000, which Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recently confirmed the government would maintain.This is lower than Labor's previously stated target of 27,000 by 2025, but higher than the 13,750 the party was reportedly recently considering cutting it to.Opposition Leader Angus Taylor hasn't specified a number for the Coalition's refugee intake but says it will be below the former Morrison government's level of 17,875.Boucher points out that targeting one specific group or visa class as a means of controlling migration has its limits.If you cut [visas] in one area, how do you now that family migration is not going to spike?She says prospective applicants will adapt to policy changes and look for workarounds; for example, a cut to student visas could trigger a spike in partner visas."It's in the fine grain that the decisions have to be made and that's what makes it such a challenging policy area."For the latest from SBS News, download our app and subscribe to our newsletter.