Twenty-one days.That’s how long Jalen Duren has to decide whether to take the most extreme route available in this stalemate with the Detroit Pistons: the $9.6 million qualifying offer that has a current deadline of Oct. 1 (more on that later).For the 22-year-old All-NBA center, who league sources say is very seriously considering that route, the choice to force his way into unrestricted free agency next summer would reflect a relationship gone wrong with the only NBA franchise he’s ever known and a risky (but understandable) business decision. League sources spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the private nature of the talks.Even if he played the entire season with the Pistons — not a guarantee considering Detroit must consider trading him now rather than losing him for nothing later — the whole basketball world would know the Pistons were at odds with a player who was supposed to be a foundational piece.And truth be told, that much is evident already.Detroit enjoyed a historic regular season due in large part to Duren’s contributions. And for a team that suffered a second-round loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers as he struggled mightily, the prospect of Duren taking the qualifying offer would mark the latest, and biggest, blow to the long-term plan that appeared to be in place just a few months ago.As the countdown continues to a decision day, here’s what we’re hearing on the Duren front.Why Jalen Duren is still a free agentHunter Patterson and Jeshua KiddThe negotiationsThere is still time for Duren and the Pistons to get a deal done, but the talks have stalled in recent weeks. Before then, it seemed as if the two sides were making progress.Per league sources, Detroit’s last offer was a five-year deal in the $190 million range. Duren, who is eligible to receive a five-year, $287 million contract, is seeking at least $200 million. As is the case with any player’s contract negotiation, the use of player or team options in the deal significantly impacts the final number.A new data point has emerged in the marketplace since the Pistons’ last offer, though, as the Houston Rockets’ Amen Thompson inked a five-year, $208 million extension in early September that would seem to strengthen Duren’s position. While the 23-year-old Thompson is a pivotal player for the Rockets, he was not selected to either an All-Star or All-NBA team last season. Duren was named to both. These are the kinds of “comps” that are typically used in talks to establish a player’s value.Yet no matter how much conviction Duren might have in his case, there’s a very simple reason the vast majority of players avoid taking the qualifying-offer route. The money lost in that QO season, as well as the health concerns that come with forgoing the security of a long-term deal, adds up to a great deal of risk. Unless, of course, the player is so confident in the prospects ahead that it mitigates the concerns with picking that path.By all appearances, that’s the case with Duren.There’s one team, in particular, that appears perfectly positioned to pluck Duren if he should be available next summer: the Sacramento Kings. As The Athletic reported in early July, when Duren began taking meetings with other teams as a restricted free agent and made it clear he was interested in playing elsewhere, the Kings were at the front of that line.Detroit has been unwilling to engage in sign-and-trade talks with Sacramento and others, but the reality remains the Kings still have very strong interest in Duren and could make room to sign him on a max-salary deal next offseason if they desire. Duren, conversely, is known to be eyeing Sacramento as a desirable destination where he could thrive alongside Darius Acuff Jr. as an established building block.Whether it was the Kings or any other team giving max money — and league sources say Duren has three very serious suitors in all — the financial numbers over the course of the next five years would ultimately be very similar (approximately $6 million less based on current projections). That alone might be enough for Duren to decide to roll the dice.The relationshipIt speaks volumes that Duren has chosen to keep his distance from his team this summer. Per a league source, Duren didn’t attend the San Diego team minicamp Cade Cunningham coordinated the week of Aug. 23 or the Labor Day team party at owner Tom Gores’ home in Southern California.Duren was nothing but professional at the beginning of last season when asked how he felt about not being offered a rookie-scale extension. He maintained his focus was on winning, backed that approach up with his regular-season play and even stated he wanted to spend his entire career in Detroit. The Pistons host media day in roughly two weeks, and it’ll be interesting if Duren’s mindset is the same — or if he’s in attendance.Though Detroit president of basketball operations Trajan Langdon has publicly expressed his desire to retain Duren in the long term, and Gores has shown a willingness to cut huge paychecks in the past, a deal has yet to materialize. Lest anyone forget, it was just two summers ago that Duren saw his Pistons co-star, franchise centerpiece Cade Cunningham, ink a five-year deal that was ultimately worth a combined $269 million (because he made All-NBA).Factor in the free-agency loss of the popular and productive Tobias Harris (he signed with San Antonio), the loss of an imposing presence in Isaiah Stewart (traded to Memphis for two second-round picks) and the prospect of a disgruntled Duren, and this group that had risen to the top of the East has taken major roster hits. The locker-room atmosphere that was such a pivotal part of this group’s early identity could be much more challenging to maintain.There have been quality additions, from veteran forward John Collins (on a three-year, $51 million deal) to scoring guard Isaiah Joe (via trade from Oklahoma City), along with the re-signing of veteran guard Kevin Huerter (three years, $27 million), but the young core that helped Detroit reach this point is undeniably in peril.In the event Duren takes the qualifying offer, would Langdon and Gores decide to deal Duren before he hits the open market in free agency? That’s a question the Pistons’ front office will be forced to answer if a long-term deal doesn’t materialize.Another component Langdon has to consider that could add to the holdup is Detroit’s desire to save money for Ausar Thompson’s impending extension. Duren just watched Thompson’s twin brother sign his extension with the Rockets and surely understands that his contract, or lack thereof, has an inevitable ripple effect on Thompson’s deal.Langdon has prioritized optionality since being at the helm with the Pistons. He said during a postseason media availability that he knew re-signing both players “would be expensive.” But thus far, it appears Duren’s asking price has been too high to risk the optionality he seeks.Detroit is currently on the hook for $154 million next season without counting Duren, which puts it $46 million below the luxury tax. The Pistons’ payroll is increasing on a yearly basis with drastic raises in the futures of not only Duren and Thompson, but potentially Ron Holland II as well, who’s eligible for a rookie-scale extension next offseason.While Detroit currently has enough financial wiggle room to not worry about exceeding the luxury tax, there is the NBA repeater tax levied to teams that go over the luxury tax in at least three out of four seasons. The penalty tax is a scale that progressively increases based on how many millions a team is over the luxury-tax threshold. The rationale in a dispute over $10 million in total could seem inconsequential, but considering yearly payroll and extensions for players in the near future, it’s not as simple a decision as it may seem at first glance.There’s plenty Duren could be pondering in regard to his value to the team as a whole. Although Duren is aware he underperformed in the postseason, to his credit, he did earn his first All-Star and All-NBA nods over a much larger sample size of games. It would be fair for Duren to hope the Pistons can acknowledge he’s capable of being that player with room to grow at only 22.Ultimately, the human element can’t be ignored, but the NBA is a business. A new contract could come to fruition for Duren, and it could be business as usual with no hard feelings. But this is the second consecutive offseason Duren has negotiated for a new deal, and those attempts, thus far, have proven futile. It remains to be seen whether there are any lingering feelings from these negotiations, but what’s immediately apparent is the ongoing disconnect between Duren and the Pistons’ front office over his value. The handling of that disconnect could become a defining moment of the organization’s turnaround.The deadlineThere could be a plot twist pertaining to the Oct. 1 deadline, as the league’s collective bargaining agreement allows Detroit to push back the qualifying-offer deadline to as late as March 1, 2027. It remains to be seen if the Pistons exercise that right in the short term, if only to remove some of the pressure that keeps rising as that ominous date nears.At some point, though, one of these two parties will have to decide if it is going to be on the same team this season — or, perhaps, for many years to come.A deadline, and perhaps the fate of a would-be title contender, awaits.