Fitch Ratings says an AI-led market collapse could send U.S. share prices down 35% over six months and push the economy into recession, as American growth becomes increasingly dependent on technology spending.
The ratings firm modeled the outcome as a severe downside scenario, not its forecast. It combined the market selloff with a 15% decline in overseas stocks and a sharp retreat in AI investment and business confidence.
What Fitch’s Scenario Shows
U.S. GDP would contract 0.6% in 2027, with year-over-year growth falling to negative 1.5% in the second quarter. Private capital spending would drop more than 6%.
Global growth would fall below 1%, a level Fitch said would signal stagnation. Canada and Mexico would suffer GDP hits exceeding 2%, while China and the eurozone would each lose around 0.8 percentage point of growth.
