Thursday Night Football in Week 1 features a huge NFC West matchup, as the Los Angeles Rams are favored in a neutral site matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.Not only is this just the second game of the 2026 NFL season, but it’s also the first-ever NFL game being played in Australia.The Rams are already down star defensive lineman Aaron Donald in this game, and the travel plans for both teams have drawn a lot of attention with the Rams only planning to be in Melbourne for about 36 hours before kickoff. Have the unusual circumstances of this Week 1 matchup impacted the betting market? Sports Illustrated spoke to several oddsmakers across the industry to get an inside look at this Week 1 matchup on Thursday night. 49ers vs. Rams Odds: Would a Home Game in L.A. Have Changed the Line? Beginning the season with a game at a neutral site naturally leads to a closer spread, but the market has landed on a consensus number, L.A. -3.5, on Thursday. But, what if this game was in L.A.? Each book has each team power rated slightly differently, and it’s interesting to see just how much the line would love in the Rams’ direction had this matchup been set at SoFi Stadium in Week 1. DraftKings: Current line: Rams -3.5 | If the game was in L.A. – Rams -4 “This is probably going to be a surprise to you, but I'd say around four, possibly 4.5, but probably four, which isn't much further than we are here on a neutral site,” Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations for DraftKings Sportsbook told Sports Illustrated. “Kind of give you a little background on that: the Rams are approximately 3.5 points better than San Francisco on our power rating, and their home field is worth maybe 1.5, two tops. In a home field advantage, it differs on who you're playing in a particular game. Because this is the 49ers and the close proximity to L.A., and their fan base travels so well, that would weaken that advantage. So, it seems weird, but that's the way it actually shakes out.”Fanatics: Current line: Rams -3.5 | If the game was in L.A. – Rams -6.5“Typically we equate home-field advantage to about three to four points depending on the venue,” Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook told SI. “And SoFi is pretty neutral as far as how much of a distinct advantage it is, being in a dome and being a rather new stadium. So, we probably put it at about a 6.5 with everything currently as is. “The one X-factor would be Aaron Donald. We don't know if he would have played if this game was in LA. I'm inclined to believe that he may have, and this travel just may have been a little bit too much to go back into in your first game. So, if he's in the lineup, that line likely shifts to the 7, possibly 7.5 range. As things currently stand, 6.5 would be probably where we'd price it.”Caesars: Current line: Rams -3.5 | If the game was in L.A. – Rams -4.5 or -5.5“The Rams would be a -4.5 or -5.5 favorite if this game were played in Sofi Stadium,” Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, told SI. “The Rams do not have as big a home-field advantage, especially against the 49ers, where Sofi becomes Santa Clara South when the 49ers come to town.”BetMGM: Current line: Rams -3.5 | If the game was in L.A. – Rams -4.5 or -5.5“The Rams would have likely been a -4.5/-5.5 favorite at home,” Christian Cipollini, Senior Trading Manager at BetMGM told SI. “L.A.’s home field advantage isn't very large in general.”49ers vs. Rams Travel: Betting Market Doesn’t Give Either Team an EdgeThe 49ers and Rams have employed very different travel plans ahead of Week 1, with San Francisco heading out to Melbourne for about a week to acclimate while the Rams are attempting to do a “drive-by” spending less than two days in Australia. There seem to be pros and cons to both strategies, but this is an unprecedented event in NFL history. So, how has it impacted the line? “It didn't,” Avello said when asked if the travel plans for either team impacted the odds. “First of all, these teams had six months to prepare for their arrangements. And we had this game up for a few months. So, our initial thoughts are that San Francisco getting there one week prior to kickoff was probably a better move. But maybe the Rams are onto something by getting there the day before. So, honestly, we had no way to tell, but in all likelihood, we undoubtedly will after this game is over because it's something new for the existing database.”Avello isn’t alone. FanDuel didn’t adjust the spread best on “existing research” that shared the Rams and 49ers are attempting the two best approaches to this unique game. "We have not adjusted the spread because of the Rams and 49ers different travel plans,” a FanDuel trader told Sports Illustrated. “The existing research suggests that their two approaches are the best options, and we would only differentiate our approach to a line if a team arrived somewhere in the middle of what we’re seeing ahead of this game."Clearly both teams have weighed the benefits to each of their plans, and it’s pretty clear that the impact of the travel won’t be known until after the game, and could impact games in the future with this kind of travel. “Both these teams have sleep doctors on hand that are going to prescribe basically how the team should handle rest heading into this game, we don't view it as a distinct advantage for either squad,” Gour said. “But I guess we will see once it hits the field, as this is a new situation for all of us.”There also could be a long-term impact for these teams after this game, which will make the lines in Week 2 extremely interesting. It’s possible the 49ers may have a tougher time acclimating back into a new environment after spending so much time in Australia. “There has not been a significant adjustment, if any, to the line due to the travel plans,” Feazel said. “If anything, it makes more of an impact for Week 2, where I expect the Rams to be less affected than the 49ers, who will need more time to reacclimate to the United States than the Rams will.”Aaron Donald Injury Doesn’t Change 49ers vs. Rams SpreadDonald did not make the trip to Australia with the Rams, as they are attempting to give the star defensive lineman more time to ramp up ahead of his return to the NFL. Donald has not played in a game since 2023, so sending back into a wild travel scenario may not have been best for his long-term health. The Rams have remained 3.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks ahead of Thursday night’s game, and DraftKings Sportsbook currently is showing that 70 percent of the spread bets for tonight’s matchup are on L.A. 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Sportsbook Insiders: Insights on 49ers vs. Rams Odds, Aaron Donald Absence, Travel Impact
Thursday Night Football in Week 1 features a huge NFC West matchup, as the Los Angeles Rams are favored in a neutral site matchup against the San Francisco 49er















