The Houston Texans are entering the 2026 NFL season with some high expectations.They've been on the doorstep of the AFC Championship Game for the past three seasons, carry one of the best defenses in the entire league on their roster, and have made several changes on the offensive side of the ball in hopes that those tweaks can be what leads them over the hump this year.But as much optimism as there might be surrounding this Texans team, what if they fail to meet those lofty expectations? What would have to happen throughout Houston's season for that Super Bowl ceiling to not be met, and leave this squad going back to the drawing board for the fourth straight season?Let's take a look at three possibilities that could be in store for the Texans that, if true, could sink their Super Bowl hopes they're entering the 2026 season with:1. The Run Game Doesn't Leap as ExpectedJul 31, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans running back David Montgomery (32) during training camp at Houston Methodist Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectThe Texans' run game from last season wasn't exactly an attack that was set up for success, considering their expected starter, Joe Mixon, would remain out for the year with a foot injury. Nick Chubb and Woody Marks filled in as the one-two punch to lead Houston's running back room for the season, yet it didn't pan out to extremely favorable results.Since then, Houston's brought in David Montgomery via trade with the Detroit Lions to complement Marks in hopes of lifting this unit from their 2025 state. The Texans ranked 22nd in the NFL last season for total rushing yards and 27th in rushing touchdowns.On paper, Montgomery should be able to provide a lift for the Texans' offense as a between-the-tackles runner, a goal line threat, and an underrated pass-catcher. But he is entering his age-29 season fresh off his lowest usage year to date with the Lions in 2025.If for any reason Montgomery isn't up to speed, this Texans run game could look eerily similar to last year's output. And if that's the case, it'll be much tougher for Houston's offense to make the right strides forward to become a true Super Bowl threat.2. The Left Side of the O-Line FaltersAug 20, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans offensive tackle Aireontae Ersery (79) and teammates enters the field out of the tunnel before the Texans play the Las Vegas Raiders at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectThe Texans' offensive line–– which has seen multiple changes across the offseason–– is not going to be perfect. If this newly constructed group is able to hold up to league average, or even slightly above average, it could be exactly what this team needs to get over the hump.But a lot of the weight for this offensive line's progression will lean upon how the left side of this five-man front will perform. Per Nick Caserio and the Texans' unofficial depth chart, it'll be Aireontae Ersery and Keylan Rutledge at left tackle and left guard, respectively.Those two are a pair of linemen the Texans have invested a lot into through the past couple of years as round two and one draft picks. And they've been brought in with an expectation of being the spark of life this offensive front has desperately needed for two seasons now.If they can work through the growing pains of being a young NFL lineman to become plus-level starters next to the three veterans beside them–– Evan Brown, Ed Ingram, Trent Brown–– that'll be huge for the success of this scoring attack.If those growing pains do arise though, a lackluster offensive front won't allow the Texans to make it much further into the playoffs than where they ended up last season.3. A Lackluster Showing From C.J. StroudAug 20, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) calls a play during the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Reliant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters ConnectOdds are, if the first two aspects of this list are in check––the Texans' run game and their offensive line––C.J. Stroud will be a major beneficiary of that to have a much-improved season. Neither factor is one that went his way in 2025, and led to him having an up-and-down, widely-criticized campaign as a result.But what if Stroud still has a lackluster season despite the Texans' surrounding improvements? If his interception numbers don't take a step in the right direction, or fails to get his passing totals up from their ongoing decline since his rookie season, it's hard to imagine this offense really meeting the mark as a Super Bowl caliber group.The pieces of the puzzle seem like they're in place for this offense. The run game expects to be better, there are many options to be had in the receiver and tight end room, and the offensive line has seen multiple positive changes. Now, Stroud just has to deliver in what’s undoubtedly the most important season he's seen as a pro yet.Sign up for our free Houston Texans On SI newsletter, and get breaking Texans news delivered to your inbox daily!Add us as a preferred source on GoogleFollow