Thursday, September 3rd 2026 - 08:41 UTC
UBS argues that Venezuelan output will take years to recover and that the impact on prices will be limited in the short term
Leading financial analysis firms have tempered the White House's forecasts on the Venezuelan oil agreement announced by Donald Trump on Friday, which grants a company part-owned by the US government control of seventeen fields holding some 65 billion barrels of reserves for a hundred years.
UBS argues that Venezuelan output will take years to recover and that the impact on prices will be limited in the short term. The Swiss bank says prices “continue to react mainly to developments in Hormuz” and has not revised its forecasts for the sector as a result of the deal. The White House had maintained the transaction would substantially reduce petrol prices for American consumers.
Timelines are the main obstacle. The consultancy Rystad Energy calculates that Venezuela will not recover its historic production peak — three times current levels — until 2050, and that doing so would require investment of 85 billion dollars. UBS adds that new transport infrastructure, technical capacity and a stable environment will be needed after years of underinvestment, sanctions and power cuts.
