SummaryIran escalates with "20 for 2" response doctrine: 20 targets for every 2-3 targets struck.Iran sets heightened conditions for war's end: Tehran calls for an end to attacks, Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, an end to the Yemen blockade, and release of $24B in frozen assets.Shipping attacked: A tanker carrying 2M barrels of Iraqi oil was hit by a drone in Iraqi waters.Damage assessment in wake of overnight assaults: CENTCOM denies US warships were hit while saying 10 Iranian tankers have been destroyed. Regional reports say Jordan bases hit hard.Oil tops $100: Brent crude surpassed $100/barrel as markets see prolonged Gulf disruptions and little hope for a diplomatic off-ramp.Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Yes 20% · No 81%View full market & trade on Polymarket* * *IRGC: '20 for 2', Vows Disproportionate ResponsesAmid the dramatic escalation which kicked off since Tuesday night, Iran is seeking to impose new conditions on the United States. While continuing to vow a 'disproportionate response' to any attack moving forward, Tehran is now identifying specifics.IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi states Wednesday, "The imposed war, which involved the world's most powerful nations, has ended in certain periods, but the nature of the conflict continues. For the first time, this conflict has directly inflicted strategic damage on the United States, impacting the country's security and economic equations."He issued the following list for the US to reach an end to the conflict. "If the enemy desires an end to this situation, they must"...completely cease the warrefrain from further threatswithdraw the Israeli army from Lebanonend the siege of Yemenrelease the $24 billion of Iranian assets that have been frozencease any interference in the country's nuclear and missile programsThis definitely marks a raised bar, to be sure, after this summer the MoU complete ceased, and negotiations vanished. There's no way Washington complies with even half of the conditions, at this rate.Importantly, Mohebbi also said: "We have reached a point where if the enemy strikes at 2 or 3 of our targets, we will respond forcefully by striking at 20."Tanker Attacked in Iraq Territory Waters, After CENTCOM Insists US Warships Not HitAfter a huge Iranian ballistic missile launch on US bases in Jordan overnight, CENTCOM has yet to respond in any major way. The Pentagon has also said all US troops "are accounted for" - but this doesn't necessarily mean there were no casualties. However, CENTCOM is at the moment denying that the Iranians hit US warships, as the IRGC has been claiming since Tuesday, in an oddly specific statement: The IRGC claims to have targeted and inflicted "significant damage" on a pair of US warships in the Gulf of Oman: DDG-119 USS Delbert D. Black and DDG-53 USS John Paul Jones, both Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.CENTCOM responded: "No U.S. Navy warship has been struck; all IRGC attempted attacks failed." It added on X, "Meanwhile, U.S. forces have successfully destroyed 10 Iranian tankers in just the last week. These vessels were part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network that funds the IRGC, and Iran cannot defend them."Meanwhile, Iran's military is continuing to go on the offensive, seeking to maintain its leverage over the contested Strait of Hormuz."A Panama-flagged tanker carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi fuel oil was struck today by a drone in Iraqi territorial waters, two port officials say," Reuters reports. "Iraqi rescue boats extinguished a fire aboard the tanker, New Andros, and there are no reports of casualties, port officials tell Reuters."💢 BREAKING: A Panama-flagged tanker carrying about 2 million barrels of Iraqi fuel oil was struck by a drone in Iraqi territorial waters, according to two Iraqi port officials cited by Reuters journalist Ahmed Rasheed. The vessel and extent of the damage were not immediately… https://t.co/3ciZBBGgg7
