Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) holds its biggest event of the year Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET at the Steve Jobs Theater in Cupertino, and for the first time in 15 years, someone other than Tim Cook will run the show.

The “Surprise and Shine” event marks the first iPhone launch under new CEO John Ternus, who took over Sept. 1 as Cook shifted into the executive chairman role.

Three new phones are expected, led by Apple’s first foldable iPhone, likely priced from $2,099 and branded “Fold” or “Ultra.” Pro-line models should see $150 to $200 price hikes tied to rising memory costs, according to Bank of America, and a revamped Siri AI, built partly on a customized Google Gemini model, rounds out the software story.

Twenty Years of Launch-Day Jitters

History suggests the stock will not celebrate right away. Across 24 iPhone launches since 2007, Apple shares have averaged a 0.3% decline on launch day itself, with a median drop of 0.6%.