The NFL Playoff Simulator is back and better than ever! We’ve taken big steps this offseason to improve our NFL season projecting tool, and we’re thrilled to be sharing it with you.As you might remember, the simulator, which is powered by my NFL Projection Model, can tell you just about anything you want to know about how the 2026 season is likely to unfold. The NFL Playoff Simulator can show you how likely your team is to make the playoffs; it can lay out a team’s odds of winning each game; it can outline how likely a team is to win its division, its conference and the Super Bowl; it can even show you how a winning or losing streak will affect a team’s odds of making the playoffs or picking in the top 10 of the NFL Draft.With the NFL Playoff Simulator, you have the power to simulate each and every game of the NFL season, at any point, and see how the results you’ve chosen affect a team’s outlook.Frankly, the applications of the simulator are too numerous to list, so we thought we might highlight a few of the awesome tools you have at your disposal, so you can get a feel for what the NFL Playoff Simulator is capable of.How to use the new NFL Playoff SimulatorAustin MockUnderstanding the oddsBreaking news: My model has the Los Angeles Rams as the Super Bowl favorites. Can you believe it? After adding All-Pros Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald and Trent McDuffie to a team that already has All-Pros Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, my model likes the Rams better than every team in the NFL.Shocker, right?OK, so while everyone has the Rams as favorites entering the year, what our tool can show you is what that actually means and how that might change throughout the season. First, when we say the Rams are favorites to win the Super Bowl, we mean that when we simulate the season approximately 100,000 times, the Rams come out as Super Bowl champs 18 percent of the time.That means in more than 80 percent of the simulated seasons, another team won the title. While that may seem like low odds for such an overwhelming favorite, they’re not, especially considering the competition. The team with the next-best odds to win it all is Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills at just 10 percent.Here’s what else the tool can tell you: Even if the Rams start the season 1-4 (this link will take you directly to that scenario), they’d still be better than a coin flip to make the playoffs in most scenarios. Obviously, that’s based on the information we have now. If the Rams start 1-4, say, because Stafford suffered a season-ending injury, the model would adjust its prognostications to account for what would be a devastating loss for the Rams. They likely wouldn’t be Super Bowl favorites anymore.The Rams do face what my model believes is the fifth-toughest schedule in the NFL, so they could drop some games against quality foes. However, their roster is so strong that it would take some significant injuries or a prolonged period of poor play to knock them off their pedestal as Super Bowl favorites.How to simulate the seasonAnother cool feature of the simulator is that, as previously mentioned, you can simulate as many games into the future as you want to see how those wins and losses will affect a team’s outlook. This could be especially insightful when considering how teams will fare in the face of a major injury.Consider the Green Bay Packers’ situation with Micah Parsons. The Packers will be without their star pass rusher for at least the first month of the season. There’s some hope he could return in Week 5 against the Chicago Bears, but my model prefers to play it safe and is assuming he returns closer to Week 7.So, while the model has already accounted for his absence when tabulating the Packers’ odds in the first six weeks, you can actually simulate each week the Packers will not have Parsons and watch how their playoff odds change in real time.For instance, let’s say the Packers go 2-4 in the first six games, winning their two easiest games — at the New York Jets in Week 2 and vs. the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3. That would put their playoff odds at around 18 percent entering Week 7, ahead of Parsons’ estimated return.However, if they were to also beat the Bears at home in Week 5 and get to 3-3 through six weeks, their odds skyrocket to 40 percent. If you’re feeling really optimistic about what new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon can scheme up without Parsons, you could project them to go 4-2, calling for a Week 6 win at home against the Dallas Cowboys; then the Packers’ playoff odds jump to around 64 percent. You get the point. With the NFL Playoff Simulator, you can construct any scenario you want during the season and see how the odds change.The battle for draft position beginsAs I mentioned at the top, the NFL Playoff Simulator isn’t just a tool for gauging teams in the playoff hunt. It’s also a great tool to check in on the likely draft position ahead of what is expected to be a loaded 2027 NFL Draft class. If your team is participating in the “March for Arch” Manning or you covet another elite prospect, the draft page of the NFL Playoff Simulator is definitely one to bookmark.And as sad as it is to say before the season has even started, the race for a top-10 pick in next year’s draft begins on Sunday. No game from the opening slate has bigger implications on draft positioning than when the Miami Dolphins visit the Las Vegas Raiders (Jets at Titans is a close second).As you can see on our draft page, the Dolphins open the season as the favorites to secure the first overall pick, with odds sitting at 20 percent, while the Raiders’ odds sit at 7 percent. If the Dolphins lose on Sunday, as they’re projected to, their odds to pick at No. 1 next April jump up to 27 percent, but a win drops them to 12 percent. Talking about draft odds in September is a bit grim, but this definitely will be a popular part of the NFL Playoff Simulator come the final month or two of the season.We can’t possibly stress this enough: We’ve only touched the tip of the iceberg in terms of what the NFL Playoff Simulator is capable of. To fully understand how useful and how fun the tool is, our best advice is to go check it out. Play around with it and let us know what your favorite uses are for it. And of course, if you have any questions or ideas on how we can make it better, we’d love to hear from you. Drop your suggestions in the comment section.
The NFL Playoff Simulator is back! Here’s how you can use it
The 2026 NFL Playoff Simulator is an interactive tool that can help you answer any questions you have about your team's playoff future.








