We're now in the heart of earnings season, and investors are paying close attention as companies report their financial results from the first quarter of 2021. It’s a routine, in some ways, but in others, there has never been an earnings season quite like this. It’s the first one post-pandemic, but perhaps more importantly, the results are coming out during a time of nearly unprecedented government stimulus spending. There’s no real comparison to tell just how the inflows of cash are going to impact the bottom lines.

Weighing in from Raymond James, strategist Tavis McCourt has put his finger on some of the key points for investors to take cognizance of. First, McCourt notes that the “S&P 500 2021 consensus EPS continues to move higher, almost on a daily basis, and has increased another 2% in the first two weeks of earnings season.”

McCourt identifies the correct historical setting to the current conditions: “We normally see forward earnings revisions positive in the first 1-2 years of an economic recovery…” The comparison breaks down, however, as the estimate revisions just keep moving higher.

“…analysts/management teams/this strategist, continue to underestimate the positive impact fiscal support (not ‘modelable’ as it’s never been done in this fashion before) is having on corporate earnings,” McCourt added.