In July, Taiwan witnessed a first-of-its-kind intrusion – a sophisticated AI cyberattack against its government and private sector networks. The hack was suspected to have been carried out by Chinese actors. While impactful, this is not surprising and it overinflates perceptions of China’s true cyber threat to Taiwan.
Most people assume that China’s cyber capabilities define the totality of its threat to Taiwan, but this simply does not capture the full picture. Intent and opportunity to use cyber are equally critical. A threat is properly defined as the product of an adversary’s intent, opportunity, and capability. While China’s cyber capabilities currently pose a significant threat to Taiwan’s digital sovereignty, environmental factors limit its intent and opportunity to use cyber in an existential way toward Taiwan. The threat is currently modest but can change rapidly as conditions shift.
Intent
Taiwan represents a fundamental challenge for China’s leadership, not only due to its dominance over the semiconductor market, but also due to its mere existence as a democracy made up of ethnic Chinese. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) risks losing legitimacy with its populace – and its power – if Taiwan is not incorporated back into the mainland. Thus, China has indicated it aims to integrate Taiwan back into China by 2049.
