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Andy Burnham’s move to impose sanctions on West Bank settlements is politically savvy – but not because it will achieve his purported aim of advancing a two-state solution.
For one thing, the impact in Israel will be minimal. Ed Miliband was clear that the new sanctions regime will target those ‘providing services such as construction or financing for Israeli settlements’, while trade within the Green Line will continue. Yet the principal providers of such services to the settlements are Israeli banks, major companies and the Israeli government itself. Short of Miliband sanctioning them, the policy is unlikely to achieve much. The economies of the West Bank and Green Line Israel are completely intertwined. Of course, if the Foreign Secretary did opt for the full-fat boycott, the cost to Britain’s economy and intelligence services would be too great. It would run counter to the national interest, and this is why Labour won’t go near the option.
Israeli diplomats are also conscious that the public and political class in Jerusalem largely do not care what Labour MPs think. It is the approval of the US government that matters. If Donald Trump turned against the settlements, then Israel might act. Meanwhile, not one of the serious contenders in the forthcoming Israeli elections is campaigning to withdraw from the West Bank. That is because 7 October extinguished the remaining vestiges of support for a two-state solution within Israeli society. Miliband’s sanctions will not suddenly persuade the major parties to commit electoral suicide by changing course.
